Uncertain event

Success Problem

What is the uncertain event? Isn´t it the same as random event?

Impact

Random event is a stochastic event, which occurence probability can be computed from the data about its former occurences (aleatory uncertainty). Uncertain event is a stochastic event, which probability is not possible to compute, because there are not known enough data about its foregoing occurences. The probability of an uncertain event can be only subjectively estimated (epistemic uncertainty) by the means of the qualitative risks and opportunities analysis.

Recommendation

Uncertain event can be a risk or an opportunity. Events, concerning a project as a whole are always uncertain events, because due to the project uniqueness there are not known data about their foregoing occurences. This does not need to be valid with respect to individual activities or other parts of the project, because they could appear in other projects. The probability of an uncertain event can be estimated as fllows: an indivi-duum or a group gives a subjective estimate by the means of a qualitative statement, using some from the problem solving methods. These qualitative statements are usually defined as scales with three, four or five steps. The qualitative estimates are then combined with numerical values. More exact estimates can be produced by the means of a simulation of po-ssible project progress according to various scenarios. The simulation can be produced „manually“ describing the possible project progress by the project team. The simulation can be supported also with a computer and suitable simulation software.

Category

• Schedule & Time
• Risk & Opportunities